russian national sport used to be vodka, now its the “forever rate” and the only thing its beating is the economy. the kremlin’s got a new horror show every week, but this one’s got it all: a war that eats cash like a fat kid at a buffet, a market that’s one panic away from a heart attack, and a gasoline crisis that’s just the final boss for anyone still pretending things are fine.
stavka navsegda: the rate that never drops
the central bank’s key rate is stuck at “painful” and the regime is too scared to move it. inflation’s out of control, but the real fear is the ruble faceplanting if they even think about dropping the rate. imports would get pricier, the whole potemkin village would catch fire, and the only thing left would be the smell.
keeping the rate high means credit is dead, business is dead, and the only thing alive is the state’s thirst for cash. its like watching a guy try to put out a fire with vodka, then blame the smoke on nato. the regime’s not managing the economy, its just praying nobody notices the corpse.
the only thing “forever” about the current rate is the pain
war: the budget black hole
the war is the main character here, and its not even hiding. every month the budget deficit breaks a new record, and the only reason it didnt explode in august is because sberbank and other state companies coughed up massive dividends. thats not income, thats the government shaking itself down and calling it a win.
the real deficit is still hovering around 6 trillion rubles, and the only thing keeping the lights on is creative accounting and whatever they can squeeze out of the last semi-functioning businesses. the regime is robbing peter to pay paul, then robbing paul for good measure.
- budget deficit keeps breaking records
- state companies forced to pay out dividends to plug holes
- creative accounting is the only thing keeping the lights on
market in panic mode
“v rynok v uzhasye” is not just a meme, its the daily mood. investors are running for the exits, business confidence is in the toilet, and the only people buying anything are the ones who have to. the hope that the central bank would lower the rate and let the economy breathe is dead.
no one’s investing, no one’s expanding, and the only thing growing is the list of bankruptcies. the regime keeps promising “stability,” but all that means is the same people are losing money in the same ways, just a little slower. the market’s so dead even the vultures are bored.
gasoline crisis: circus time
ukrainian strikes have knocked out about 90% of russia’s refineries for gasoline. the last big one, omsk, finally went down, and now the country is running on fumes. prices at the pump are hitting 150 rubles a liter, if you can even find a pump that’s open.
in the big cities, they’re keeping things “stable” by sucking fuel out of the regions and dumping it in moscow and st. petersburg. if you live anywhere else, good luck. most small towns have closed stations, rationing, or lines that look like a soviet flashback. the regime calls this “managing the crisis.” i call it “colonial resource extraction, but make it 2026.”
- regional gas stations closed or rationing
- car sales down 20-30%
- avtoVAZ staying unprofitable for years, only alive on state handouts
- farmers getting crushed by fuel costs, food prices next to spike
lets not forget the “badyazhit” gasoline, cutting it with whatever’s handy to stretch the supply. this isnt a temporary fix, its the new normal. engines are gonna start dying en masse, but hey, at least the stats will look good for another quarter.
nationalization and the death of business
the government’s answer? more nationalization, more control, more “temporary” measures that will never end. they’re grabbing whatever assets they can, like the collapse of ozon (the russian amazon, but with more bribes), and pretending this is all part of the plan.
meanwhile, the real economy is dying on its feet. small businesses are getting wiped out, online sellers on wildberries are losing hundreds of billions of rubles, and nobody’s getting compensated. the regime’s message is clear: if you’re not in moscow or working for the state, you’re on your own.
- ozon collapse, wildberries sellers losing big
- small businesses wiped out, no compensation
- more nationalization, more control, zero actual fixes
propaganda on overdrive, reality in reverse
the propaganda machine is in overdrive. every week, they promise the crisis is over, the market is stabilizing, and the west is jealous of russian resilience. meanwhile, the only thing “resilient” is the ability to survive on less and less. the regime’s big export isnt oil or gas anymore, its cope.
they sell you greatness while you crap in a hole in the yard, and the wild part is you clap. the real kicker? the regime just fired the only economist at the state investment bank who dared to say out loud that russia is losing the war and the economy is toast. replaced him with a guy who used to work at bloomberg, because nothing says “we’re fine” like hiring someone who actually knows what a functioning market looks like. spoiler: he’s not gonna fix anything, he’s just there to put a new face on the same disaster.
the bottom line: pain is the only thing forever
so here’s the bottom line. the war is eating the economy alive, the market is terrified, and the gasoline crisis is the cherry on top. the regime’s answer is to double down on control, squeeze the regions dry, and pretend everything’s fine as long as moscow has fuel and the tv says “victory.”
the only thing “stable” is the decline. the only thing left to export is the sound of a thousand officials explaining why none of this is their fault. if you’re still buying the line that russia’s economy is strong, i’ve got a bridge in crimea to sell you. it comes with a free jerry can, if you can find any gas to put in it.
russian economic miracle: now with extra lines, less gasoline, and 100% more cope.
