benzin is the new ruble, except you cant even wipe with it. russia’s economy is a lada on bricks, engine gone, wheels missing, and the guy who stole it is on tv bragging about “import substitution.” welcome to another episode of “second army of the world speedruns collapse,” starring the kremlin, a bunch of terrified markets, and a gas crisis so bad even babushkas are side-eyeing their jerrycans.
rate forever, hope never
the central bank’s key rate is stuck at “dont ask, dont tell” levels, because if they drop it, the ruble does a triple axel into the toilet. if they raise it, the last business in russia will be a guy selling socks out of a suitcase at the border. the regime is boxed in and everyone knows it. the only thing holding up the budget is sberbank and a couple other state companies coughing up “dividends” like a kid shaking coins out of a piggy bank to pay rent.
that august budget “surplus”? two-thirds of it was just sberbank paying the state, which is like borrowing from your left pocket to pay your right and calling it a win. nobody outside kremlin tv buys it. the only thing “forever” about the rate is the crisis it’s hiding.
the only thing more diluted than russian gasoline is their gdp numbers.
war eats the economy alive
every time the kremlin says “we’re winning,” the market loses another year off its life expectancy. the budget deficit is still hovering around 6 trillion rubles, and that’s with every trick in the book. they’re squeezing state companies for cash, hiking taxes, and praying nobody notices the math doesn’t add up. spoiler: everyone notices.
even the regime’s own economists are bailing. the main guy at veb.rf, andrei klepach, got the boot for saying out loud that russia is losing the war. now they’ve got some bloomberg expat in there, probably to write the press releases in better english for when the next default hits.
gasoline crisis: walk or die
ukrainian strikes turned russian oil refineries into a game of whack-a-mole, except the moles are on fire and the prizes are empty gas stations. about 90% of the refineries that actually make gasoline have been hit. the last big one, omsk, was limping along until it got whacked too. now the whole country is running on fumes, literally.
gas prices are up almost 1% in a week, which is nuts for russia. at the pump, it’s 150 rubles a liter, and that’s if you can even find a pump that’s open. in the regions, most stations are closed or rationing to 20-30 liters per car. moscow and st. pete get the good stuff, everyone else gets to walk.
- gas stations closed or rationing outside the capitals
- car sales down 20-30%
- avtoVAZ says no profit for years, needs bailouts
- ag sector hammered, food prices up, inflation back
classic colonial logic: keep the capital and the cronies fueled, let the provinces eat dust. if you’re in a small town, good luck. the only thing moving is the line at the bus stop.
badyazhit nation: cut the gas, cut the corners
and dont even get me started on the “badyazhit” gasoline. they’re cutting it with whatever’s handy to stretch the supply. that’s gonna wreck engines all over the country, but hey, at least the ministry of truth can say there’s still gas at the pump. the only thing more diluted than russian gasoline is their gdp numbers.
the market is in full panic mode. the hope was that maybe, just maybe, the central bank would lower rates and make credit cheaper, give business a shot in the arm. that hope is dead. with inflation roaring back and the ruble circling the drain, nobody’s getting cheap money. the only thing getting cheaper is the ruble itself, and even that’s a stretch.
stats, scams, and state grabs
let’s talk about the “official” numbers for a second. the regime loves to brag about “low inflation,” but that’s over. the gasoline crisis blew up that fairy tale. even the government admits now that high prices are here to stay. the only thing they can do is try to fudge the stats and hope nobody notices the price of cucumbers at the market. spoiler: everyone notices.
meanwhile, the regime is nationalizing whatever’s left that looks profitable. putin signed a decree to grab more businesses, because nothing says “investment climate” like the state showing up with a crowbar and a notary. ozon, the russian amazon, is in freefall. wildberries sellers are getting hosed for hundreds of billions of rubles in losses, and the regime’s answer is “write it off, move on.” if you’re a small business, you’re just cannon fodder for the next budget patch.
war is forever, patience is not
the big picture is simple: the war is a black hole sucking in money, people, and hope. every time ukraine hits a refinery, the regime has to scramble to keep the lights on in moscow. every time the market panics, the central bank has to choose between killing the ruble or killing what’s left of the economy. the only thing that’s “forever” is the crisis.
the regime’s answer to all this is to double down. more mobilization, more taxes, more nationalization, more propaganda. they’ll keep the war going as long as they can, because stopping means admitting they lost. but the economy is already waving the white flag. the only thing left is to see how long the regime can keep the plates spinning before the whole circus comes down.
none of this is a surprise. the only people shocked are the ones who believed the hype about “import substitution” and “sovereign economy.” the rest of us saw this coming the minute the tanks rolled and the sanctions hit. you can’t run a modern economy on vibes, washing machine parts, and whatever’s left in the strategic borscht reserve.
so yeah, “stavka navsegda” - the rate is forever, the war is forever, the crisis is forever. the only thing that’s not forever is the patience of the people getting hosed at the pump and the checkout line. the regime can spin all it wants, but you can’t eat propaganda and you can’t drive on empty. at some point, even the most loyal vatnik has to ask why the “greatest country on earth” can’t keep the lights on or the gas flowing.
but hey, at least the tv says everything’s fine. just dont ask where your neighbor went, or why your lada wont start, or why the only thing growing faster than prices is the line at the border. the russian dream: a full tank, a working car, and a neighbor who’s even more screwed than you. right now, that’s about as realistic as a kremlin press release.
bottom line: the war is killing the economy, the market is terrified, and the gas crisis is the final nail in the coffin. the regime can shuffle the deck chairs all it wants, but the ship is still sinking. and the only thing left to export is the cope.
