下記日本語記事の英文による紹介をおこなう。
ＣＯＲ(候補者超過達成比率)の分布（参院選2025年福岡のデータ）
Introducing a Mathematical Approach to Electoral Structures: The COR and CA Framework
This analysis represents a mathematical attempt to describe Japanese electoral and social structures using open statistical data. The framework utilizes a specialized metric called the Candidate Overperformance Ratio (COR) in conjunction with Correspondence Analysis (CA) to visualize the "quality" of electoral competition beyond simple win-loss outcomes.
1. What is COR (Candidate Overperformance Ratio)?
The COR is a quantitative indicator that measures how many times a candidate has amplified their party's basic strength in a specific area.
- Definition: The ratio of a candidate's individual votes (Constituency) to their affiliated party's basic proportional representation (PR) votes.
- Formula: COR = V_Candidate / V_Party,Base.
- Purpose: A COR above 1.0 indicates the candidate has outperformed the party's fundamental strength. It serves as a measure of "vote-gathering intensity".
2. Enhancing Analysis through Correspondence Analysis (CA)
While COR measures quantity (absolute magnification), it can be affected by statistical noise—for example, a high COR might simply result from an extremely small party base. To account for this, the study uses Correspondence Analysis (CA) to map the "distance" between parties and candidates based on their geographical vote distribution patterns (profiles).
3. Operational Rules for Structural Interpretation
By combining these two dimensions, we can interpret electoral performance through the following logic:
- Close CA Distance + High COR: If the candidate's distribution is identical to the party's, a high COR might indicate statistical fluctuation caused by a "thin" party base rather than individual strength.
- Far CA Distance + High COR: If a candidate is positioned far from their party in the CA space while maintaining a high COR, it provides strong evidence of personal mobilization power—drawing votes from outside the party's traditional support base.
- Strategic Mismatch: A large distance combined with a low COR suggests a mismatch between the candidate's strategy and the party's existing regional strongholds.
- Performance Gap: A small distance (overlapping bases) combined with a low COR suggests the candidate is failing to absorb the party's available base votes.
4. Objective and Scientific Perspective
This methodology is designed to clarify the mathematical properties and structural shifts in politics. It is a statistical tool used to describe the political landscape and does not evaluate the personal merit of candidates or voters. By distinguishing between "absolute vote magnification" and "relative regional distribution," we can better understand the underlying mechanics of modern elections.
