The Peaceful Transfer of Power
On this day four years ago, our republic fell under the greatest threat to it since the civil war.
On March 4th, 1801, John Adams, of the Federalist party conceded the elections to Thomas Jefferson of the Democratic-Republican party, despite the bitterness and flair of the preceding political rivalry. This was the first true test of a foundational concept in America, The Peaceful Transfer of Power. For the curious, the transition between George Washington and John Adams wasn't really much of a test because they were in the same political faction. But this one told us that even when contentious and opposing factions form, we would respect the electoral process.
Even though I am not a massive fan of John Adams, especially for his absurdly unconstitutional "Aliens and Seditions Act", an egregious act that violates the first ammendment by criminalizing critique of the government, he was willing to concede the power, and the course would be corrected.
Sowing the Seeds of doubt
Leading up to the elections, various prominent conservative entities promoted conspiracies about rigged elections. This includes the infamous fox dominion lawsuit in which fox aired conspiracies that they knew were false. Trump constantly pushed the idea that it was rigged.
There was also the 2000 Mules film, in which Dinesh D'Souza alleged a conspiracy coordinated by the Dems for mass voter fraud using spotty telecom data to commit mass voter fraud. However, Dinesh D'Souza's claims were debunked and the publishing group, Salem media group, issued an apology
One notable phenomenon, was the fact that as the votes were being counted on the night of, they seemed to lean heavily red. People probably went to sleep, either having already given up hope, or excited for their inevitable victory. Some may have even caught Trump's premature victory speech, strongly hinting that it would flip and be stolen. Lo and behold, they wake up the next day to find out that the Democrats won? Where did this giant blue spike come from? Oh, all of a sudden these "mail-in" votes come in when they were losing to save them?
This seems to be highly suspicious, and for many, served as evidence for the election being stolen right before their very eyes. However, this phenomenon, known as "The Blue Shift", has been known about since 2013, and even study from 2015 found that the greater number of absentee votes, the more democratic they lean.
But it wasn't just some obscure study from half a decade before, due to the pandemic, this effect was amplified, as Republicans typically took the lockdown less seriously, and were far more encouraged to vote in person. Even long before the elections, many predicted a blue shift amplified by the pandemic. CNN also reported on the pandemic's effect on the blue shift, as did Axios, reporting on the Hawkfish predictions.
These were all before election night. So it was, or should have been main stream news at that point. And although there is room for conspiracy, one ought to at least concede that yes, mail in votes would probably lean democratic.
January 6th
Trump held a ralley, in which he spoke passionately about the need to fight One could say he meant metaphorically, and point to his quote of having said "peacefully and patriotically march down to The Capitol", however, when you also say things like:
“We will not take it anymore and that’s what this is all about. To use a favorite term that all of you people really came up with, we will stop the steal.”
“We fight like hell and if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”
"Today I will lay out just some of the evidence proving that we won this election and we won it by a landslide. This was not a close election."
"We're going to walk down to the Capitol and we're going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we're probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them."
"All of us here today do not want to see our election victory stolen by emboldened radical-left Democrats, which is what they're doing. And stolen by the fake news media. That's what they've done and what they're doing. We will never give up, we will never concede. It doesn't happen. You don't concede when there's theft involved."
"Anyone you want, but I think right here, we're going to walk down to the Capitol, and we're going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we're probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them.
Because you'll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength and you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated, lawfully slated."
the messaging is far starker. What does he expect them to do at the Capitol? Many of whom are armed.
And what did he mean when he thanked John Eastman, and hoped that Pence would come through:
"And I'll tell you. Thank you very much, John. Fantastic job. I watched. That's a tough act to follow, those two. John is one of the most brilliant lawyers in the country, and he looked at this and he said, 'What an absolute disgrace that this can be happening to our Constitution.'"
"And he looked at Mike Pence, and I hope Mike is going to do the right thing. I hope so. I hope so.
"Because if Mike Pence does the right thing, we win the election. All he has to do, all this is, this is from the number one, or certainly one of the top, Constitutional lawyers in our country. He has the absolute right to do it. We're supposed to protect our country, support our country, support our Constitution, and protect our constitution."
"And Mike Pence is going to have to come through for us, and if he doesn't, that will be a, a sad day for our country because you're sworn to uphold our Constitution."
We will come back to that. But as for this day, I'm not sure most people who witnessed the events of January 6th were fully aware of the extent of what those meant.
Perhaps we can say that Trump never intended for them to enter the Capitol. That may be the case, perhaps it was sufficient for him for them to intimidate them from the outside. But when it got out of hand, and people broke in to the Capitol, why did Trump stall his response, ignoring pleas from his officials.
"If the president had wanted to make a statement and address the American people, he could have been on camera almost immediately," Matthews testified. "If he had wanted to make an address from the Oval Office, we could have assembled the White House press corps within minutes."
- 12:53 PM: The riots had crossed the perimeter.
- 2:06 PM: Rioters enter the building
- 2:38 PM: Trump tweets to stay peaceful
- 4:17 PM: Trump releases video telling people to go home
- 4:32 PM Secretary Miller finally authorizes the DC National Guard to aid
Why did it take so long even after threatening events? He may not have told them to break into the capitol explicitly, but he riled them up on the false notion that the elections had been stolen and that they had to "stop the steal". And when they did breach, he did nothing for hours, despite having the opportunity.
Widespread condemnation
Many Republicans condemned the events of January 6th as they were happening.
You had pundits like Ben Shapiro claiming that this was the worst thing to happen to America since 9/11, even plainly declaring it an insurrection.
But alas, memory is short, and perhaps many thought at the time that this would surely be the nail in the coffin. But as time went on and support for Trump seemed to hold out, tunes changed and those who condemned the acts and him, went right back to supporting him.
![[Pasted image 20250106082153.jpg]]
Support for prosecution of the insurrectionists dropped starkly amongst Republicans.
The Fake Elector Plot
So let's get back to what he expected Pence to do.
The way presidential elections work is that every state has a designated number of electors, and each state determines how to allocate their electors. The vast majority of states, all but 2 have a winner takes all system (for Game Theory reasons, it makes your state more attractive to campaigning if you offer a whole block of a politician just manages to cross the 50% threshold), and they send a "Slate of electors" chosen by the state legislatures who pledge to vote for a particular candidate.
Now pay attention, because this is the Crux of this post. It's what makes this so much more than a measly insurrection by just a few of unaffiliated extremists. It shows an intention to coup
Trump and his lawyers hatched a plan in which they would have an alternate fake slate of electors send in fake certificates for Trump in states that were pledged to Biden. Actual forged certificates of ascertainment.
This goes way beyond any allegation of claims ballot box stuffing at minor local levels, much of which have no evidence or been explicitly debunked. This is fraud at the final and most influential level. So there is a deep irony, and it just goes to reinforce the idea that every accusation seems to be a confession, except their fraud is to a significantly greater extent, with explicit evidence that it actually happened AND of involvement from the top.
The plan was to get Pence, the Vice President who has the ceremonial role of counting the certificates, to reject the legitimate ones in confusion, and to select the fake ones, or to use the mix up and conflict to invoke the Constitutional clause in which contested elections are given to the house to vote on, which was Republican controlled at the time, so would get his win.
Trump and his conspirators were indicted, of several different means of subverting the elections.
Pence the Patriot
Although I disagree with Pence on a lot, he seems to have had enough of a spine to refuse Trump's demands. Pence counted the legitimate ones, as is his role to do.
Rioters were angry, chanting "Hang Mike Pence", and Pence later recounts that Trump put his family in danger.
Pence had commited political suicide, and Trump wanted a new partner. And a new partner was willing to crop up.
JD Vance said he would do what Pence didnt. JD Vance would have helped Trump subvert the electoral process, and progress his coup. But recall that JD Vance had previously likened Trump to Hitler.
Still in denial
At the end of 2023, nearly 70% of Republican voters still believe the election was stolen.
Trump was asked recently In an interview with Kristen Welker if he would concede his 2020 loss, and he still refuses.
The 14th ammendment
Section 3 of the 14th ammendment of the Constitution states:
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
A prominent conservative former judge, J. Michael Luttig, a George H. W. Bush appointee, who was am advisor for Pence on the illegality of Trump's demands, believes Trump has become ineligible for office via section 3 of the 14th ammendment.
Criminal Immunity
In Trump v. Unites Staes 2024, SCOTUS ruled in favour of absolute criminal immunity for all "official acts" of the President. A dissenting opinion by Justice Sonia Sotomayor likened this to having power above the law like a King, and outlined how it could be abused.
The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune. Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today. Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done. The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.
Trump's defence isn't to deny it but rather appealed based off criminal immunity. It's not "I didn't do it", it's "You aren't allowed to prosecute me if I did do it, because I am immune". Sonia Sotomayor wasn't far off. Although his coup wasn't military and it didn't succeed, he still attempted it, and he believes he is immune. And the chances are, with him having actually won legitimately this time in 2024, Trump will likely get away with everything.
Remember that Trump has also vowed to pardon the insurrectionists, which ultimately sends a signal that any action is okay, even if illegal, so long as it gaurentees or substantially increases the chances of putting your guy in power, because then he will just pardon you. This lets all people know that he has your back and you have cart blanche to do anything that keeps him in power. The law doesn't apply to him. And if you keep him in power, nor will it apply to the actions you take for that cause.
The Spineless
After the events of January 6th, in 2020, many companies pledged to withhold support election deniers, but are now each donating far more for Trump's inauguration than they had previously. Each of these companies should be held to account, or recognized for exactly what they are. A handful of Littlefingers, who will say exactly what people want to hear, but have no principles or loyalty, and will kiss the ass of whoever they have their bets on the throne.
WAITING FOR DESTINY
I fucking wrote this half assedly on my bus ride, but much of what's in here was brought to my attention by @destiny.gg , who has been working on a FAR more in-depth and thorough video breakdown of what occured, that he was SUPPOSED TO RELEASE BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, to actually impact voters. Although to be fair, most Trump voters don't seem to really care even when they do learn of the coup. But please, Destiny, wouldn't today be a banger day to release it?
Closing statements
(I'd like to apologize if this seems rushed, I do want to ensure I post this on January 6th, but started... On January 6th.)
The news cycle turns over quickly, but this isn't something we can forget. Trump might do some weird quirky things, but those shoudlnt displace constantly reminding and informing people about the unamerican tyrant who attempted a coup who people then voted for. Someone who is willing to do this, who has now assembled a loyal team, isn't someone who ought to be trusted.
Stay vigilant for the coming term.
