Ukrainian ballistic missile production could begin this autumn, and the weapons already in certification would put St. Petersburg and Moscow within direct reach of Ukrainian steel. The engineering is solved, combat tests have already happened, and the only remaining obstacle is scaling production.
The Missiles and Their Reach
Firepoint is pushing both the FP-9 and FP-7 through certification right now. The FP-9 will carry 800 kg of explosives to a range of 855 km. That puts St. Petersburg comfortably inside the reach of Ukrainian steel. Moscow sits at just 480 km.
The FP-7 mirrors the PAC-2 profile with a 200 km range and 150 kg warhead. It is designed for dual use, either striking ground targets or intercepting air threats.
Why Ballistics Change the War
This timeline matters. Ballistics change the math that Moscow pretends still favors them. Unlike drones, these weapons arrive in minutes at hypersonic speeds that most Russian air defenses cannot handle. Only S-300V and S-400 batteries have any realistic chance. Even they cannot cover every depot, airfield, and Iskander launcher from Crimea to the border.
The FP-7 is being tuned specifically to hunt those launchers the instant Western intelligence lights them up. Four minutes of flight time turns preparation into a death sentence.
Production Timeline and Strategic Effect
The promise feels close at hand. Ukraine already carried out two Sapsan combat tests this summer. The engineering is solved. Production scaling is the only remaining hurdle. By late 2026, once monthly output hits even twenty to thirty systems, Russian operational logistics will become unsustainable.
Their rear areas are already burning every day. Ballistics will accelerate that fire until the economic and social strain becomes intolerable for the Kremlin.
What the West Should Do
The West should stop treating Ukrainian long-range development as a nervous footnote. This offers the fastest route to credible deterrence on the continent. Every FP-9 that rolls off the line reduces the number of Western weapons packages needed later.
Moscow started this war. It has no moral or practical right to demand sanctuary while it continues striking Ukrainian cities. The sooner Ukrainian ballistic fire reaches their command posts and ammunition hubs, the sooner this ends on terms that secure Europe instead of another frozen line that simply invites round two.
