Girkin is a war criminal and a liar. But when he talks about mobilization inside moscovia, he is not doing opposition politics. He is doing damage control for his own class. The interesting part is that a new wave is coming, and even the people who started this war now admit the population no longer believes in it.
The Elite's Admission of Guilt
Read what he actually says. Four years of war, minimal results, Kherson and Lyman lost. And the people running the war keep their families in London, New York, and Paris. An admission of guilt, not a moral reckoning. The Kremlin's internal elite is preparing its own exit narrative while the state readies another round of mobilization.
The timing fits everything we know. Duma elections are in September. The Kremlin is floating mobilization signals through people like Girkin now to test the reaction before the vote, since announcing it earlier would be too costly. After the election, the legal machinery is already in place.
The Legal Machinery Is Already Built
The 2022 mobilization decree was never canceled. Contracts signed during mobilization are effectively indefinite. They do not need a new dramatic announcement. They can simply expand the existing process and call it something else.
The real story is the collapse of consent. Levada data shows 67 percent of russians want negotiations, the highest of the war. Only 24 percent support continuing. The state pollster FOM says 55 percent expect the war to end in 2026. People are not volunteering at the rate the front demands. The July advance was under 38 square kilometers. It's a tactic. A funeral procession is passing by.
Two Options, One Choice
So the regime has two options:
- Admit the war has failed
- Force more people into it
We know which one they will choose. The West should acknowledge that this situation is volatile. A moscovia that needs mobilization after four years is not winning. It is sacrificing its people to delay an inevitable defeat.
A moscovia that needs mobilization after four years is not winning. It is sacrificing its people to delay an inevitable defeat.
What Ukraine Needs Now
Ukraine needs to counter that desperation with smarter strategy: weapons, long-range capability, and the political will from partners to let the collapse happen faster. Every month of delay means more dead Ukrainians and more russians dragged into a war their own elites do not believe in.
