Kyiv’s bridges are not being hit because Russia believes it can destroy Ukrainian logistics. They are being hit because Moscow wants you to watch the video and change your route to work.
The Strategic Logic of the Strikes
Artem Bidenko, head of the Institute for Information Security, walks through the actual strategic logic. He points to the 2006 Kydd and Walter framework on terrorism, which identifies five logics of violence against civilians. Two apply directly to what Russia is doing now.
Attrition. The goal is to convince Ukrainians that the price of resistance is higher than the price of surrender. Every crater on a commuter bridge feeds the argument that giving in would be cheaper. That narrative is already circulating, pushed by the usual voices calling for peace at any price. The attacks and the propaganda are one operation.
Intimidation. The target is the driver on the bridge. The target is everyone watching the footage and wondering whether the state can protect a daily commute. The intended result is fatigue, a population that starts calculating which routes feel safe and eventually accepts that no route is safe.
What the Data Shows
The data says this strategy fails. Max Abrahms analyzed 28 groups designated as terrorist organizations by the US State Department and the 42 political goals they pursued. They achieved roughly 7 percent of those goals. The groups that primarily targeted civilians performed the worst.
Robert Pape reached the same conclusion on strategic bombing of cities: punishing civilians almost never forces a government to surrender. The US commission that studied the bombing of Germany in 1945 found that the population was demoralized but the war machine kept functioning.
The entire history of counterterrorism shows that negotiation and capitulation produce more casualties, more pressure, and defeat.
The Countermeasure Is Speed
The United States has refused to pay ransoms for hostages since the 1970s, on the logic that every concession makes the next attack more attractive. Punishment must be inevitable, even if delayed. Bin Laden was found ten years after 9/11.
Israel during the Second Intifada cleared attack sites within hours, restored bus routes immediately, and reopened cafes as fast as possible. The goal was to deny terrorists the image of a city brought to a standstill. France after the November 2015 Paris attacks deployed up to ten thousand soldiers under Operation Sentinelle, kept a state of emergency for two years, and then built those powers into standard law. The public response was JeSuisEnTerrasse: people returned to the exact cafe terraces where the shootings happened.
What Kyiv Must Do
For Kyiv, the answer is the same. Reopen the bridge as quickly as possible. Keep repair crews working longer than the video of the impact crater stays visible in social media feeds. Make sure every strike is met with punishment, even if that punishment comes later.
Russia is a terrorist state. The only response that works is refusing to let the attack change how the city lives.
