Putin is pursuing a military resolution instead, betting that Europe will break before Ukraine does. The Kremlin’s current strategy, according to Russian and European officials and analysts, is a race against European endurance.
The Winter Deadline
The strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kyiv are preparation. Putin wants the capital unlivable before winter sets in, and he expects that by spring Europe will have neither the will nor the capacity to keep supporting Ukraine.
A Russian official told The Washington Post the approach directly: Moscow will take the path of escalation to deter Europe, while striking Ukraine to fully exploit the absence of missile defense. The same official dismissed renewed peace talks as leading nowhere.
The European Front
Russian leadership is alarmed that European involvement in the conflict keeps deepening. A Russian academic close to senior diplomats said Moscow wants to stop that process.
Some analysts in Moscow now argue that intensified attacks on Europe and nuclear saber-rattling are the only options left to the Kremlin. It must be addressed now. The current campaign states this logic.
The Patience Game
The Russian economic machine, one official admitted, is holding on with difficulty. It is holding. And as political forces friendlier to Moscow gain strength across Europe, the Kremlin is treating strategic waiting and patience as a tactic.
Putin enjoys Europe’s political troubles. At the Valdai Club last week he claimed European leaders blame hybrid attacks only to distract from their own domestic failures. Asked whether Russia would try to destroy the EU, he answered that they will collapse on their own.
Putin believes he is winning a war of attrition not only against Ukraine but against the entire continent.
With the Trump administration asking Congress for no new funds for Kyiv, Moscow now treats Europe as the main obstacle standing between the Kremlin and victory. Each holdup in European decision-making feeds that calculation. Every unfilled air defense commitment makes the winter deadline more real.
