Russia has thrown four armies at a narrow 50-km stretch of the Donetsk front and reached the outskirts of Dobropillia, but its wider offensive has slowed. The fight now hinges on whether Moscow can turn infiltration into a usable breakthrough.
Four Armies, One Narrow Front
According to military analyst Clement Molin, Ukrainian forces withdrew early this year from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where they had still held substantial positions. Russia then pressed forward with its 29th, 51st, 41st and 8th armies, concentrated along roughly 50 km of front.
That mass brought Russian troops toward Dobropillia. It carried them only as far as the western administrative boundary of Donbas. The push toward Druzhkivka has, for now, been repelled. Moscow has committed immense force without getting the sweeping result it wanted.
The Dobropillia Danger
Russian troops are making deep infiltrations into Dobropillia, reaching the city centre and beyond. That is more serious than merely approaching its outskirts. But an infiltration route does not give secure control of a city.
Dobropillia matters because capturing it could give Russia a springboard toward Barvinkove, behind Ukraine’s fortified areas in Donbas. Denying Moscow that foothold is central to this phase of the battle. Russian forces can still get small groups into dangerous places. The question is whether they can keep them supplied and build a sustained advance from them.
Russian forces can still get small groups into dangerous places. The question is whether they can keep them supplied and build a sustained advance from them.
Kostiantynivka Is Still Fighting
After a year of combat, Kostiantynivka has not fallen. Molin estimates Russian forces are present across roughly 50% of the city, Ukrainian forces control about 15%, and the remaining 35% is a grey zone. His estimate does not mean Russia has firm control or functioning logistics throughout its share. Fighting around the city remains contested, while the offensive toward Druzhkivka has slowed. Ukrainian troops have also partly withdrawn from their outermost positions in Chasiv Yar.
Further north, the picture east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk has improved since September after deteriorating sharply earlier in 2026. Ukrainian forces have pushed the line back near Mykolaivka and Kramatorsk, and the front near Sloviansk has stabilised.
Russia is now only a few kilometres from major cities and new defensive lines, leaving it less room to manoeuvre. Molin expects the coming battles to be largely frontal. The next months will test whether Ukraine can fully stabilise this sector while stopping Russia’s attempt to turn Dobropillia into the next route deeper into its rear.
