Americans are voting today for all 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats. Republicans control both chambers. By tonight, voters will have decided whether Trump keeps a Congress that largely lets him do as he pleases or faces one with the power to investigate him and obstruct his agenda.
The map
Democrats are favoured to take the House, while the Senate is a tougher fight. Polymarket prices Democratic control at 95% for the House and 78% for the Senate. Those are betting-market probabilities, not votes counted. The Senate contest runs through a small number of key states, with Democrats leading in five of seven races cited in polling, including Texas and Kansas.
That position helps a party trying to take both chambers from Republican control. It also explains why the administration’s conduct around a close race deserves attention.
Alaska
A federal court in Alaska rejected a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block certification of a possible Democratic victory. The dispute concerned the appearance on the ballot of a candidate who shares Republican Senator Dan Sullivan’s surname.
The court’s rejection matters because certification is how an election result becomes official. The Justice Department tried to put a legal barrier in the way of that process before voters had finished deciding the race.
A handful of Senate seats could determine control, and the fight over ballot paper in this contest is serious.
The referendum
These midterms are being fought as a judgment on Trump’s second term. His approval has fallen to roughly 33% to 37%. Voters are dealing with the cost of living, the war with Iran and allegations of corruption while he campaigns for Republican candidates.
The corruption numbers are especially brutal. In a Harris poll for The Guardian, 76% said politicians care more about enriching themselves than about the economy. Financial disclosures indicate Trump has earned around $2.2 billion since returning to the White House, including royalties from his own memecoin.
Voters are being asked to trust politicians to fix their household finances while the president’s own fortune keeps growing.
