Trump has invited Putin. Orban, Fico, Nordic leaders and Turkey have spoken with him. Zelensky is calling for a ceasefire, while Russia still demands a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine and territory beyond its current control. Another call will not uncover a secret peace proposal.
Talks Need a Strategy Behind Them
Putin’s demands are public. Ukraine must abandon the alliances its people want. And it must surrender Donbas along with the annexed regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Americans speak to Putin regularly. Orban and Fico have done so often. Nordic leaders spoke with him recently, and Turkey maintains contact. Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Belarus also talk to Moscow. Contact is possible. Getting the Kremlin to change its terms is the problem.
A Ceasefire Needs Two Sides
Zelensky has made that call repeatedly to open peace negotiations. Russia rejects Ukraine’s proposals while favouring pauses set on a timetable useful for building up forces before another offensive. A candidate promising to “get a ceasefire” without saying how Russia would be made to observe one is offering a wish, not a policy.
Nor would a referendum in the occupied east settle sovereignty. Ukrainians voted for independence in 1991. A vote under occupation, after residents have been killed or driven out and Russians have moved in, would reward the invasion that altered the electorate. It would also leave out the south, which Moscow claims too. Calling that self-determination makes it unfree.
The Price of Abandonment
The pitch usually ends with stopping military support for Ukraine because France supposedly cannot afford it. French aid is put at €12 billion over five years, roughly half involving refugee support, transfers of older weapons and practical opportunities for French defence manufacturers. The weightier financial commitment runs through the EU. Walking away would cost Paris trust and influence among the overwhelming majority of its European partners, including countries whose cooperation France needs in trade and defence sales.
Everyone can say they want peace. The serious test for a presidential candidate is what pressure they would apply when Moscow believes continued war can still deliver what it wants.
Diplomatic contact with Russia is sensible. Pretending Putin’s objectives are unknown is not.
