Democrats won the House popular vote by their largest margin in 50 years and took Senate seats in Mississippi and South Carolina. Trump urged voters to treat the midterms as a vote on him, and on November 8, The Economist’s YouGov tracker put his net approval at a record low of −30.
The Election
The Economist forecast that Democrats would probably take the House and might take the Senate. It now says it was too cautious. Senate wins reached states that had looked beyond its grasp.
Neither Mississippi nor South Carolina is easy territory for Democrats. Their losses make the Republican defeat hard to dismiss as a few close races gone wrong. Trump made himself the test, and voters handed his party a historic defeat.
The Approval Collapse
Net approval is the share approving minus the share disapproving. Around +4 at the start of 2025, it fell below zero, reached roughly −10 that spring and kept sliding through 2026. The election did not halt the decline.
The comparison with earlier presidencies is brutal. At this stage of Trump’s first term, his net rating was roughly −13; Biden’s low at a similar point was around −15. His second-term figure is twice as negative as either low. Not every voter who disapproves backed a Democrat, but his standing has deteriorated since his winning coalition formed.
His image as a winner has taken two blows: an election in which he asked to be judged personally, then a new low in approval. Calling the result a victory would require voters to ignore both the ballots and the polling.
The Issues Voters Live With
Trump is underwater on every issue in The Economist’s tracker. Inflation is worst at −42 net approval, followed by the economy at −41. Government spending is at −34, tariffs at −32 and Iran at −31. Immigration, closest to even at −13, remains negative.
The order matters. In 2024, voters gave Trump another chance because they believed the businessman and self-described dealmaker might bring prices under control after the inflation surge under Biden. Instead, his trade disputes raised import costs, while the Iran war pushed up oil costs. Those prices feed through to transport, production and household bills. The issues on which he promised relief are those on which voters judge him most harshly.
A tariff can be sold from a podium as toughness. At the till, its cost is harder to rebrand.
Trump has long treated economic confidence as proof of his competence. Net ratings of −42 on inflation and −41 on the economy leave little room for that pitch. Nor can he isolate them from tariffs, spending and Iran, all deep in negative territory.
The Map Behind the National Number
The Economist’s state estimates, projected from YouGov data, put Trump in positive territory only in Idaho and Wyoming. North Dakota and West Virginia are close to even but remain negative. Disapproval extends into other states that voted for him, alongside Democratic strongholds.
The sharpest warning lies in six states:
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Nevada
- Arizona
- Georgia
All six backed Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. They helped deliver his return to the White House, yet state estimates now put his net approval below zero in every state. The voters who made his comeback possible increasingly dislike his presidency.
Trump’s own voters still overwhelmingly approve of him, according to The Economist. That is precisely why the broader decline matters. He has not simply lost people who opposed him from the outset. His approval has sunk across the issues on which he asked to be trusted, including in the battleground states he had to win. The midterm result measured the political cost. The approval reading shows it has kept growing since voters went to the polls.
