Russia has reportedly laid out sweeping terms for ending its war in Ukraine, demanding Ukrainian neutrality, NATO pullback in the Baltics, and control of all Donbas, while offering limited concessions of its own.
The Demands on Ukraine
Moscow would keep every Ukrainian territory it currently occupies. Ukraine must declare itself non-aligned and abandon its ambition to join NATO, though EU membership would remain possible.
Russia also wants the ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv demilitarized. It wants agreements on freedom of navigation in both the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. That would extend a supposed peace settlement from Ukraine’s land and defences to the maritime routes on which its trade depends.
A Rewrite of Europe’s Security
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would remain NATO members. Neither demand concerns territory Russia occupies in Ukraine. Both seek to make other European states less able to choose how they defend themselves.
Moldova is in the package too. Moscow wants a federation that includes Transnistria and Gagauzia. If Moldova joins the EU, those regions would gain the right to hold independence referendums. Russia is trying to attach conditions to Moldova’s future as part of talks ostensibly meant to end its invasion of Ukraine.
What Moscow Offers
In exchange, Russia is reportedly prepared to remove nuclear weapons from Belarus. It would refrain from stationing intermediate-range missiles there and withdraw its troops from Transnistria. Those offers are being set against the demands on Ukraine and NATO allies.
Bild’s reported terms show what that pressure is meant to buy: concessions from Ukraine, NATO and Moldova in return for steps Moscow itself could take.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the Kremlin has focused on strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and pressure on Europe. That came after Russia’s army failed to break Ukrainian resistance and Trump failed to compel Ukraine to concede territory.
